Let's take a look at some non-conference schedules. Home games in bold.
North Dakota
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10/8 at Alaska-Anchorage
10/9 at #12 Alaska
11/22-23 at #7 Maine
11/26-27 #17 Notre Dame
12/30 at #8 Minnesota-Duluth (not included in WCHA Standings, thus it is a non-conference game)
1/8-9 Robert Morris* (unranked)
Minnesota
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10/8-9 UMass (unranked)
11/26 #16 Michigan State
11/28 #5 Michigan
12/31 Union (unranked)
1/1 Ferris State (unranked)
Sure, the Thanksgiving series against Mich St and Michigan will provide quite a challenge for Lucia and his boys, but that weekend is a function more so of tradition...those two teams have been playing in the "College Hockey Showcase" for, um...forever. And by forever, I mean, since before the last time Minnesota was a reputable hockey team.
With the exception of Robert Morris, UND has one very strong non-conference schedule. There's only so much that a WCHA Conference schedule can do for a team. That a team like the Gophers - with the most draft picks, the loudest arena, and highest-paid coach in Division I hockey - can't put together a decent schedule speaks to a lot of things.
Simply put, it's going to be difficult for Minnesota to advance to its first NCAA Tournament in three years (an absence that I'm still laughing about). Minnesota With easily the biggest budget in the WCHA, one would think that the Gophers would be willing to travel to play good teams...but that's not even remotely the case.
In fact, other than the College Hockey Showcase, which rotates between home and away series for the Gophers every other year, Minnesota hasn't played a road non-conference series since October 20-21, 2006, when they traveled to Ohio State. And they don't have one this year, either.
For perspective, the Sioux have played ten road non-conference games since then. And have two more NCAA Tournament appearances.
I think there is some benefit to playing cupcake teams. That is, until it royally screws you over.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Monday, September 13, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Thome
I'm always a sucker for a good story. Baseball provides plenty: The Josh Hamilton story. The '91 series. The Subway Series. The list goes on. Right now my favorite story is, of course, Jim Thome.
Thome is as unassuming and humble as he is a masher. He's played for playoff teams ('08 White Sox) and cellar-dwellers (Phils/Indians) alike. He's nearing 600 home runs, yet here he is playing for $1.5 million plus incentives. Does he want to win? Sure he does. But he doesn't yearn for attention. He doesn't fake injuries and play the media.
I mean, for a guy to hit like Thome is hitting right now is astounding, especially after having the kind of career that he has had.
What's more remarkable?
That Thome has been getting better as the year has been going on?
That Thome has been getting better despite being nearly 40 years old?
That Thome has been getting better in the midst of a pennant race?
That Thome has been getting better as he's been used more?
Tuesday night all of those factors came into play: Thome came up to the plate in the bottom of the 10th against his former team, the White Sox. The White Sox who elected to platoon Mark Kotsay et al at DH instead of Thome. The White Sox who traded Thome to the Dodgers at the deadline in '09.
Those White Sox. With himself being the winning run in one of the few remaining games between the two teams still contending for the AL Central crown.
I think maybe Thome is a little peeved at his former team. I think his .387/.472/.645 line against Chicago this year speaks for itself. On the field. Not at his ranch. Not at a press conference. On the field.
Should the Twins bury the White Sox down the stretch, this game will be looked at as a nail in that coffin. And Thome, that guy who the White Sox turned down, might be a huge reason why the AL pennant race will turn the White Sox down.
Thome knows how to be an athlete. Thome knows how to be a man. There's another guy that just got into town today that could learn a thing or two from Thome.
Thome is as unassuming and humble as he is a masher. He's played for playoff teams ('08 White Sox) and cellar-dwellers (Phils/Indians) alike. He's nearing 600 home runs, yet here he is playing for $1.5 million plus incentives. Does he want to win? Sure he does. But he doesn't yearn for attention. He doesn't fake injuries and play the media.
I mean, for a guy to hit like Thome is hitting right now is astounding, especially after having the kind of career that he has had.
What's more remarkable?
That Thome has been getting better as the year has been going on?
That Thome has been getting better despite being nearly 40 years old?
That Thome has been getting better in the midst of a pennant race?
That Thome has been getting better as he's been used more?
Tuesday night all of those factors came into play: Thome came up to the plate in the bottom of the 10th against his former team, the White Sox. The White Sox who elected to platoon Mark Kotsay et al at DH instead of Thome. The White Sox who traded Thome to the Dodgers at the deadline in '09.
Those White Sox. With himself being the winning run in one of the few remaining games between the two teams still contending for the AL Central crown.
I think maybe Thome is a little peeved at his former team. I think his .387/.472/.645 line against Chicago this year speaks for itself. On the field. Not at his ranch. Not at a press conference. On the field.
Should the Twins bury the White Sox down the stretch, this game will be looked at as a nail in that coffin. And Thome, that guy who the White Sox turned down, might be a huge reason why the AL pennant race will turn the White Sox down.
Thome knows how to be an athlete. Thome knows how to be a man. There's another guy that just got into town today that could learn a thing or two from Thome.
Manning Up Like Nolan Ryan's Pitchers Do
There is nothing quite as frustrating as continuing to hear whining about Slowey's no hitter that wasn't. And I thought the whining was limited to the uneducated masses.
I guess not.
The post is comical if you forget the fact that this is posted on the website of KFAN, possibly the most recognizable sports radio station in Minnesota. Actually, it still is pretty comical:
I am shocked at how many people are buying into this pitch count crap. The pitch count has been worse for baseball than the steroid era. There have only been 268 no-hitters in the history of the game, and the freaking pitch count stood between Kevin Slowey and number 269.
This is Kevin Slowey we're talking about, right? To say that the "freaking pitch count" is the only thing that stood in the way of Slowey and baseball immortality, one must ignore quite a few things:
1. First of all, it was only the seventh inning. That Slowey was able to no-hit the Athletics as far as he did spoke more to Oakland's ability to hit than anything. Slowey is the epitome of the Twins' pitch-to-contact mentality. Well, I guess that's not entirely true, but nonetheless Slowey doesn't get too many strikeouts with his 86.1% contact rate in 2010. Compound that with his 1.25 WHIP in the 8th and 9th innings. Oh, and let's throw on his career .379 batting average-against after pitch #100, and you have several reasons to doubt that Slowey's no-hit bid was a given.
2. This is not a team that can risk injuries over trying to make baseball history (and we've already discussed the improbability of it). While not the same situation, consider the injury to Francisco Liriano. Liriano simply threw his slider too much and the 2006 campaign changed quickly from a 12-3 thrashing of any opponent to an 18-month recovery from Tommy John surgery followed by two seasons of attempting to find his form again. Great pitchers don't grow on trees, even if San Francisco's trade (Nathan, Liriano, and that one time Boof was a good pitcher) made it seem like they do. Ron Gardenhire knew firsthand the consequences of an elbow injury, and that's why you don't mess around with it, even amidst the potential of being the 269th no-hitter.
3. The Twins sent up seven men to the plate in the bottom of the 7th en route to scoring three insurance runs. There were two pitching changes. Slowey would no longer have been loose after what was probably a 15 minute inning. It's akin to why you don't bring your starter back in after a rain delay.
Let's quit buying into this pitch count garbage and man up like Nolan Ryan is making his pitchers do down in Texas. His philosophy seems to be working just fine. And don't waste your time playing the tendonitis card. Tendonitis is easily healed with short periods of rest... just like the last period of rest Slowey received. He missed one game and bounced back pretty well from it, wouldn't you agree?
I'll just leave this here.
Average pitches per outing, Texas starters:
Colby Lewis (23 starts), 108 pitches / game
CJ Wilson (24 starts), 106 pitches / game (most are in the 110 range)
Scott Feldman (16 starts), 105 pitches / game
Cliff Lee (8 starts as Ranger), 103 pitches / game
Rich Harden (15 starts), 97 pitches / game, only six starts above 100 pitches
Tommy Hunter (13 starts), 83 pitches / game, only three above 100
I guess it's true that any idiot can have a blog. And that's why I'm here too.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Freefalling
After Detroit left Minnesota last week, the Twins were clinging onto a 1.5 game lead in the AL Central, having gutted out a series victory over the Motor City Kitties. They were second - SECOND - in the AL in ERA and, largely thanks to Jim Thome's dingers, were hitting the ball soundly.
And now look where we are. Third place entering today's blockbuster Blackburn/Bonderman matchup. Three games behind Detroit. Six losses in eight games.
Little has changed on the hitting side of things. Yeah, the primary suspect is the starting pitching which turned sour nearly overnight. Since July dawned, Twins pitchers have a 5.66 ERA...that's a jump up from a 4.22 ERA in June. One other interesting statistic is that pitchers are letting over twice as many inherited runners score. So far (yes, small sample size applies) 32% of inherited runners have scored, compared to 14% in June. Actually, it's nearly 1 per game.
The lineup, while hitting consistently (sort of), has questions. Justin Morneau has been out since Wednesday with concussion-like symptoms, putting in flux a lineup that could have finally gone back to normal. Michael Cuddyer is at first and Nick Punto is at third for the second game of the three-game series with Detroit.
A few solutions for this mess are pretty easy. Ron Gardenhire has clearly lost all confidence in reliever Ron Mahay, however deservingly. Mahay is 0-1 with a 3.96 ERA in just 25 innings of work (28 appearances). Mahay has been used mostly as a mop-up guy, but now Gardy is even hesitant to use him there. It appears that Mahay's days are numbered. A few rumblings (aka tweets) suggest that a move may be made soon. My guess would be that Mahay gets designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for either Kyle Waldrop or Anthony Slama, both relievers for AAA Rochester that are having solid years. Waldrop is buzzoo.ing right along with a 1.11 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, while Slama has been a solid closer with a very impressive 1.28 ERA and a 0.932 WHIP (only 4 H per 9 innings).
My overwhelming hunch is that the Twins will also make a trade for a pitcher. Nick Blackburn is beyond struggling right now and a move to the bullpen appears imminent (or at least, it should be). His
Roy Oswalt comes to mind, but there are probably others (Ben Sheets, Dan Haren) to note too. But right now the Twins aren't really linked to any of the three. That's a speculation for another day.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Neshek Misdiagnosed, Mistreated
Partially lost in all of the excitement of being 19-9 and getting to tee off on the Orangebirds this weekend is Pat Neshek. Neshek and manager Gardenhire apparently had an argument about Neshek's status. Neshek reported his finger as "better" and pitched twice, yet lacked any resemeblance of control in either start. Gardenhire, apparently, wanted Neshek to get sent back down to AAA Rochester, but Neshek said he would prefer the DL, which was granted on Saturday.
Some columnists really let Neshek have it, painting the idea that Neshek was faking an injury to cover up an inept performance in his appearance last Wednesday (8 pitches, 1 strike). Said Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune: "Pat Neshek seems to be following Glen Perkins' career path even after seeing where that path leads."
I'll let you draw your own conclusions about Jim Souhan's opinions and his writing in general, but suffice to say, Souhan was a bit off the mark, more than anybody could have thought.
As Phil Mackey of 1500ESPN.com reports, Neshek's finger is not the problem it's his palm. As he posted on Facebook, Neshek was told the problem was in his finger...which wasn't true. Obviously the injury is responsible for his lack of control and that likely puts Neshek out of the alleged doghouse.
Some columnists really let Neshek have it, painting the idea that Neshek was faking an injury to cover up an inept performance in his appearance last Wednesday (8 pitches, 1 strike). Said Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune: "Pat Neshek seems to be following Glen Perkins' career path even after seeing where that path leads."
I'll let you draw your own conclusions about Jim Souhan's opinions and his writing in general, but suffice to say, Souhan was a bit off the mark, more than anybody could have thought.
As Phil Mackey of 1500ESPN.com reports, Neshek's finger is not the problem it's his palm. As he posted on Facebook, Neshek was told the problem was in his finger...which wasn't true. Obviously the injury is responsible for his lack of control and that likely puts Neshek out of the alleged doghouse.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Not so fast
I feel like we've heard this before. Scott Baker had a, um, poor outing in an early season start. I would feel like a broken record if I were to break it down again, but Baker is...not hot right now.
Baker is, for all intensive purposes, the antithesis of what the Twins have set up their lineup and outfield for. What I mean is that Baker is predominantly a fly ball pitcher. If you are unaware, while Cuddyer has a strong arm and Delmon Young appears fast, both have among the league's worst UZRs. (You'll excuse me for dismissing Young's 1.0 UZR so far in '10 as small sample size.)
Long story short, Baker has kept his HR/9 numbers down around 1.1 in 4 starts, which is fine...but the rate at which he allows fly balls (38% in 2010) is alarming to anybody who willingly allows Young and Cuddyer to be in the same outfield together. Or in last night's case, Young and Jason Kubel.
But hark, Baker is doing nothing we didn't expect him to.
Anywho, the Twins are about to embark on their rubber match against the Tigers. It's Detroit's Dontrelle Willis (who struggles with control) against Carl Pavano (who has 17 Ks and 1 BB so far in '10). The Twins are shorthanded, what with Mauer, Morneau, and Hardy all taking the day off for various reasons, but suffice to say Willis is prone to some problems, and if the Twins are patient at the plate, there's no reason to count Minnesota out of this one. Luke Hughes and Drew Butera round out the lineup at 8 and 9 respectively, but we're not far removed from the days when the Twins would win games with both Punto and Tolbert...so...I'll leave that here.
Baker is, for all intensive purposes, the antithesis of what the Twins have set up their lineup and outfield for. What I mean is that Baker is predominantly a fly ball pitcher. If you are unaware, while Cuddyer has a strong arm and Delmon Young appears fast, both have among the league's worst UZRs. (You'll excuse me for dismissing Young's 1.0 UZR so far in '10 as small sample size.)
Long story short, Baker has kept his HR/9 numbers down around 1.1 in 4 starts, which is fine...but the rate at which he allows fly balls (38% in 2010) is alarming to anybody who willingly allows Young and Cuddyer to be in the same outfield together. Or in last night's case, Young and Jason Kubel.
But hark, Baker is doing nothing we didn't expect him to.
Anywho, the Twins are about to embark on their rubber match against the Tigers. It's Detroit's Dontrelle Willis (who struggles with control) against Carl Pavano (who has 17 Ks and 1 BB so far in '10). The Twins are shorthanded, what with Mauer, Morneau, and Hardy all taking the day off for various reasons, but suffice to say Willis is prone to some problems, and if the Twins are patient at the plate, there's no reason to count Minnesota out of this one. Luke Hughes and Drew Butera round out the lineup at 8 and 9 respectively, but we're not far removed from the days when the Twins would win games with both Punto and Tolbert...so...I'll leave that here.
Friday, April 23, 2010
A good routine to be in
Carl Pavano pitched 7 innings, allowing just 4 hits in just the sort of commanding performance that the Twins need out of the former Yankee.
Jim Thome provided the Twins lineup with a dependable at-bat every time he stepped to the plate.
The Twins lineup, deep as it is, pecked away at an opposing pitcher, fouling off pitches and getting on base and manufacturing runs. They took advantage of opportunities and made the most out of an extra out given.
And the improved defensive core once again turned in a perfect performance, although that depends on who you ask.
This is the storyline from Friday night, and I think it probably is a storyline that will be used again and again and again this season.
If this early start has proven anything, it's that the Twins, who went without their everyday left fielder (Delmon Young) and everyday third baseman (Nick Punto) Friday night, are deep enough to continue their winning formula no matter who plays. And it's become especially true with the success of the Twins' starting rotation. Pavano has been solid through four starts. Even with his sub-par performance Sunday, Pavano has a 4.24 ERA and a spectacular 17/1 K/BB ratio.
I'll wait for you to pick your jaw up off the floor. Yes, 17.00 K/BB ratio. Small sample size, indeed, but it is nonetheless unreal.
It's scary to think this team is going to get better, but really, they are. Manager Ron Gardenhire is still looking for the best way to mix Thome, Kubel, and Young in the lineup, and he might have struck gold when he built Thome into the lineup against the vulnerable Gil Meche. Delmon Young provides a strong bat against lefties, which makes a nice counter-balance. But eventually Gardy and company will have to find a consistent solution.
Calling Nick Punto an offensive upgrade is usually done at one's own peril.But with Brendan Harris batting .172 Punto did have a hotter bat than Harris does currently (.172), but he doesn't have nearly the patient eye that Brendan is showing at the plate. Harris has walked seven times already this year and has an on-base percent of .324. Again, small sample, but right now Harris has been adequate as a #9 hitter, even if it wasn't apparent Friday.
It is probably still too early to tell for sure, but if this rotation stays intact and healthy, I could see the Twins winning 100 games. I guess we'll find out how likely that actually is once Minnesota plays New York, but right now, the Twinkies are rolling and have so far steamrolled through anybody who has gotten in their way.
Jim Thome provided the Twins lineup with a dependable at-bat every time he stepped to the plate.
The Twins lineup, deep as it is, pecked away at an opposing pitcher, fouling off pitches and getting on base and manufacturing runs. They took advantage of opportunities and made the most out of an extra out given.
And the improved defensive core once again turned in a perfect performance, although that depends on who you ask.
This is the storyline from Friday night, and I think it probably is a storyline that will be used again and again and again this season.
If this early start has proven anything, it's that the Twins, who went without their everyday left fielder (Delmon Young) and everyday third baseman (Nick Punto) Friday night, are deep enough to continue their winning formula no matter who plays. And it's become especially true with the success of the Twins' starting rotation. Pavano has been solid through four starts. Even with his sub-par performance Sunday, Pavano has a 4.24 ERA and a spectacular 17/1 K/BB ratio.
I'll wait for you to pick your jaw up off the floor. Yes, 17.00 K/BB ratio. Small sample size, indeed, but it is nonetheless unreal.
It's scary to think this team is going to get better, but really, they are. Manager Ron Gardenhire is still looking for the best way to mix Thome, Kubel, and Young in the lineup, and he might have struck gold when he built Thome into the lineup against the vulnerable Gil Meche. Delmon Young provides a strong bat against lefties, which makes a nice counter-balance. But eventually Gardy and company will have to find a consistent solution.
Calling Nick Punto an offensive upgrade is usually done at one's own peril.
It is probably still too early to tell for sure, but if this rotation stays intact and healthy, I could see the Twins winning 100 games. I guess we'll find out how likely that actually is once Minnesota plays New York, but right now, the Twinkies are rolling and have so far steamrolled through anybody who has gotten in their way.
Rocket Bats
The Twins lost yesterday to Cleveland 8-1. I guess there's one important thing to note about it: Scott Baker fought his inner Rocket Bats (an anagram of Scott Baker) and, well, he lost. Baker kept the Twins relatively close until the sixth, where he let the game get away from him.
If you ever wondered if Scott Baker had something akin to a "wall" that he occasionally (okay, usually) hits around the 6th inning, there is some significant evidence that supports one.
Pretty straight forward numbers. Baker has a wall in pretty much every aspect of his game, with exception given to his K/BB ratio which understandably gets worse as the game goes on, not necessarily a part of the 6th inning problem. His ERA is nearly twice as much as the 5th and 7th inning, and he gives up over twice as many home runs in 6th innings as he does in 5th innings, which contributes to that spike in slugging percentage. I should also note his .937 OPS, a markedly-worse number than his .718 OPS mark in the 5th inning. And of course, his defense inconveniently drops off in the 6th too, with a 50-point spike in BABIP. Altogether there's an inexplicably large dropoff if Baker makes it to the sixth, but relatively clear sailing prevails in the event Rocket Bats survives it.
Anywho, a quick "preview" of tonight's Twins/Royals game:
I'm currently watching the Twins/Royals game, where starting pitcher Gil[ga] Meche needs to keep his pitch count down to give the Royals any hope of keeping the game close. (Spoiler alert: As I'm writing this during the 3rd inning, he's thrownlike 500 over 60 pitches in 2.1 innings. That won't work with the epic disaster that Trey Hillman calls a bullpen.)
Delmon Young is out of the lineup in favor of Thome (with Kubel in left) for some reason and Punto is on the disabled list. JJ Hardy is back after taking yesterday off.
Anywho, I'd better stop talking and let you watch before my preview becomes too easy to create. Go Twins!
If you ever wondered if Scott Baker had something akin to a "wall" that he occasionally (okay, usually) hits around the 6th inning, there is some significant evidence that supports one.
Pretty straight forward numbers. Baker has a wall in pretty much every aspect of his game, with exception given to his K/BB ratio which understandably gets worse as the game goes on, not necessarily a part of the 6th inning problem. His ERA is nearly twice as much as the 5th and 7th inning, and he gives up over twice as many home runs in 6th innings as he does in 5th innings, which contributes to that spike in slugging percentage. I should also note his .937 OPS, a markedly-worse number than his .718 OPS mark in the 5th inning. And of course, his defense inconveniently drops off in the 6th too, with a 50-point spike in BABIP. Altogether there's an inexplicably large dropoff if Baker makes it to the sixth, but relatively clear sailing prevails in the event Rocket Bats survives it.
Anywho, a quick "preview" of tonight's Twins/Royals game:
I'm currently watching the Twins/Royals game, where starting pitcher Gil[ga] Meche needs to keep his pitch count down to give the Royals any hope of keeping the game close. (Spoiler alert: As I'm writing this during the 3rd inning, he's thrown
Delmon Young is out of the lineup in favor of Thome (with Kubel in left) for some reason and Punto is on the disabled list. JJ Hardy is back after taking yesterday off.
Anywho, I'd better stop talking and let you watch before my preview becomes too easy to create. Go Twins!
Twins Blogosphere 1, Twins PR Staff 0
It was announced earlier today that utility/3B/object of affection Nick Punto will go on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to April 16th. My North Dakota math (which is better than California math) indicates that Punto is eligible to come off the DL on May 1st. Infielder Luke Hughes has been called up from AAA Rochester and will join the Twins Saturday in Kansas City.
The Twins blogosphere is a crowded community indeed. But we are not without our inside information: 1500ESPN.com blogger Tom Pelissero was, to my knowledge, the first to disclose the move. Not MLB.com. Not the Star Tribune. Of course, this is taking the Twitter approach, so I'm guessing Pelissero was not the first to know.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Twins win 5th series; no hot starts, no BS, just baseball
Some crazy things happen in April.
It was in April of 2001 that the Twins showed signs of what was to come this decade. An 18-6 record in that first month fueled hope that that 2001 season would be something special.
Minnesota ended up second to Cleveland that year, but it still ended up being the Twins' first winning season in a decade. It was a sign of things to come, but ultimately their 18-6 start was not sustainable.
Helping fuel that start was first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, who earned his only gold glove and finished 14th in MVP voting that year. Mientkiewicz had a spectacular start that peaked with a .413 batting average through May 12th, with 7 home runs and an OPS of 1.190. Suffice to say, Mientkiewicz didn't sustain that, even though he still had a respectable year: .306/.387/.464, 15 HR, 74 RBI.
The 2001 Twins could not turn a great start into a great season because they relied on ridiculous starts such as that of Mientkiewicz's. But it stands to reason that the 2010 Twins can do just that.
Why? Simply put: because they have won with a strong lineup that doesn't have a hot spot. The Twins won Wednesday night with a 6-0 trouncing of the Cleveland Indians, winning their 5th straight series to start the season.
With possible exception to Michael Cuddyer (batting .344 with 3 HRs), this team is producing at or below what they're expected to.
Mauer is Mauer, batting .346 and being every bit the catcher that Billy Smith locked up for the better part of the next decade.
Morneau has provided exactly what he's always provided. He's been a great clean-up bat much like always, and while his OBP is up around .471 that's more of a team-wide quirk.
New addition Orlando Hudson is a notch below his career average at .259. So, too is JJ Hardy, who is a bit below at .228.
Nick Punto is having a great start at .269, but I am in the camp that is not even remotely surprised by this success.
So there's a quick glance at the Twins' lineup. And while some hitters have no doubt been great, there are no surprises. In fact, the only surprise is that the Twins aren't even living up to their full potential, and in one area in particular: runners in scoring position.
I can't take credit for this idea, so head on over to Andrew Kneeland's blog entry on the topic. The Twins have been historically bad so far with runners in scoring position, far below the league average, the team's average in the last decade, etc. I'll update Kneeland's number since the Twins now have a .705 OPS with runners in scoring position, but as you can still see by his chart, .705 is still a good 150 percentage points below the trend line.
The law of averages would tend to suggest that the Twins will only get better at producing runs. There are even several batters--namely Jason Kubel--who will only get better as the season continues. That poses a question to the rest of the AL Central: How are you going to compete with an 11-4 team that only stands to get better?
It was in April of 2001 that the Twins showed signs of what was to come this decade. An 18-6 record in that first month fueled hope that that 2001 season would be something special.
Minnesota ended up second to Cleveland that year, but it still ended up being the Twins' first winning season in a decade. It was a sign of things to come, but ultimately their 18-6 start was not sustainable.
Helping fuel that start was first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz, who earned his only gold glove and finished 14th in MVP voting that year. Mientkiewicz had a spectacular start that peaked with a .413 batting average through May 12th, with 7 home runs and an OPS of 1.190. Suffice to say, Mientkiewicz didn't sustain that, even though he still had a respectable year: .306/.387/.464, 15 HR, 74 RBI.
The 2001 Twins could not turn a great start into a great season because they relied on ridiculous starts such as that of Mientkiewicz's. But it stands to reason that the 2010 Twins can do just that.
Why? Simply put: because they have won with a strong lineup that doesn't have a hot spot. The Twins won Wednesday night with a 6-0 trouncing of the Cleveland Indians, winning their 5th straight series to start the season.
With possible exception to Michael Cuddyer (batting .344 with 3 HRs), this team is producing at or below what they're expected to.
Mauer is Mauer, batting .346 and being every bit the catcher that Billy Smith locked up for the better part of the next decade.
Morneau has provided exactly what he's always provided. He's been a great clean-up bat much like always, and while his OBP is up around .471 that's more of a team-wide quirk.
New addition Orlando Hudson is a notch below his career average at .259. So, too is JJ Hardy, who is a bit below at .228.
Nick Punto is having a great start at .269, but I am in the camp that is not even remotely surprised by this success.
So there's a quick glance at the Twins' lineup. And while some hitters have no doubt been great, there are no surprises. In fact, the only surprise is that the Twins aren't even living up to their full potential, and in one area in particular: runners in scoring position.
I can't take credit for this idea, so head on over to Andrew Kneeland's blog entry on the topic. The Twins have been historically bad so far with runners in scoring position, far below the league average, the team's average in the last decade, etc. I'll update Kneeland's number since the Twins now have a .705 OPS with runners in scoring position, but as you can still see by his chart, .705 is still a good 150 percentage points below the trend line.
The law of averages would tend to suggest that the Twins will only get better at producing runs. There are even several batters--namely Jason Kubel--who will only get better as the season continues. That poses a question to the rest of the AL Central: How are you going to compete with an 11-4 team that only stands to get better?
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
So much for those control problems
(Graph courtesy fangraphs.com)
It was a question that lingered, just as it still does with Francisco Liriano and his repaired ligament: Will Slowey ever be the same?
It's a fair question, of course. Slowey was so good in 2008 that it surprises me when I look at the stats. 3.99 ERA. 5.13 K/BB ratio. Three complete games. It's no wonder people are comparing him to Brad Radke every day: A healthy and consistent Slowey will indeed be at least as good as Radke was.
Tuesday night showed just how evident that is, as it appeared that the 2008 version of Kevin Slowey showed up and definitely shut down Shin-Soo Choo and the Indians. The Twins won 5-1.
Defensively, the Twins executed the formula exactly as manager Ron Gardenhire and the Twins' front office would like it to be. Slowey's control dominated a very vulnerable Indians lineup: 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 9K. Slowey threw 98 pitches in the game, 70 for strikes. Yeah, 70. No errors, no mess. Solid defense and solid pitching by the Twins kept them in the ball game no matter what happened on the other side of things.
The Twins focused on what they could control and would have kept it a close game...had Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera fielded an easy ground ball hit by Delmon Young and turned it into a double play. He didn't, and then a bases-loaded walk, a wild pitch, an error, and a sacrifice fly turned the 1-1 pitchers duel into a 5-1 game.
It was a strange statistic line for Cleveland starter Justin Masterson (0-2, 3.00 ERA): 4.0 IP, 5 R, 2 ER*, 5 BB, 6 K. (*Officially 2 ER, but Cabrera's error prevented a double play, which a.) means none of those runs would have scored... and b.) could not be reflected on Masterson's number) Masterson was at the (unforgiving) mercy of his own defense and I think we learned who the better team was, even if it was an unconventional method of winning.
Tonight, game 2 of the series features David Huff going up against Francisco...you can read more about Huff and his stuff (heh, heh) in yesterday's blog.
Francisco Liriano looks to build on his last start last week. "Franchise" figures to be a dominating force if he can continue to be confident with his fastball and changeup and not rely on his devastating slider. A cakewalk of a lineup should allow Liriano to inflate his numbers considerably...especially if he has the command that Slowey did Tuesday night.
You have it all wrong
In a live chat earlier today, NFL commish Roger Goodell threw a bone to those who are crying for the release of the 2010-11 schedule.
From the NFL.com blog:
ESPN's Adam Shefter tweeted not long after that he thinks the choice means that the NFL thinks Brett Favre will be back.
Maybe so, but the truth is that such a move is self-perpetuating. If you haven't noticed by now, Favre is a drama queen who quite evidently loves every minute that they talk about him on ESPN, even if he doesn't appear daily via press conference or phone. He even taunts us yearly to stir the pot.
Obviously Favre stands to benefit from an opening round game that will be hyped mostly as the NFC Championship rematch, even if its stuck on NFL Network. So I think it stands to reason that Favre is happy to hear such a thing and maybe makes him want to come back more. But then again, nobody knows Favre's mind.
From the NFL.com blog:
The New Orleans Saints will play host to the Minnesota Vikings in a rematch of the NFC Championship Game to kick off the 2010 season on Thursday, Sept. 9. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, despite the fears that he will be reprimanded by schedule czar Howard Katz, leaked the game during his chat on NFL.com.
“I know I will get in trouble from our scheduling makers for releasing this in advance, but the Saints will be hosting the Minnesota Vikings for our Kickoff game. It should be a great celebration in a great city.”
Well, sometimes it is good to be the boss.
The rest of the 2010 regular-season schedule will be released on Tuesday, live on NFL.com and NFL Network, at 7 p.m. ET.
ESPN's Adam Shefter tweeted not long after that he thinks the choice means that the NFL thinks Brett Favre will be back.
Maybe so, but the truth is that such a move is self-perpetuating. If you haven't noticed by now, Favre is a drama queen who quite evidently loves every minute that they talk about him on ESPN, even if he doesn't appear daily via press conference or phone. He even taunts us yearly to stir the pot.
Obviously Favre stands to benefit from an opening round game that will be hyped mostly as the NFC Championship rematch, even if its stuck on NFL Network. So I think it stands to reason that Favre is happy to hear such a thing and maybe makes him want to come back more. But then again, nobody knows Favre's mind.
Twins v. Indians: The Team That Should vs. The Team That Shouldn't
People are hassling me to start a Twins blog, and lately I've realized this: If fatalist attention whores can do it, so can I, apparently.
Hopefully the long-term future of this blog will have Twins in the summer, general NFL (read: Packers) coverage in the fall, and Sioux hockey in the winter. So that means, for now, baseball!
After an off day Monday, the Twins continue their long first home-stand at Target Field with a three-game set against Clevelandia. The Native Americans are coming off of a very nice four-winning streak which includes a surprising sweep of the White Sox. But of course, that came on the heels of getting swept by the Tigers and dropping two of three to the Rangers, so there's not much we can say safely attribute this to other than small sample size.
Nonetheless the Indians are 6-6 and in third place in the Central. There are no high aspirations for this team this year outside of northern Ohio, but that's not to say Cleveland should be overlooked. At the risk of using dangerously small sample sizes, just look at the Indians' rotation. Three of them have ERAs under 3.50. The highlight of the rotation has so far been David Huff, who has posted a WHIP so far of 0.867 (!), which along with his disgustingly lucky .199 BABIP equates to a pretty solid 1.80 ERA. We'll see how long this lasts, what with Huff's BABIP in addition to his laughable 3.6 K/9. However, it's worth noting that he and Mitch Talbot (1-1, 3.21 ERA) pitched back-to-back complete games last week and are thus durable pitchers who keep the bullpen rested. Huff will pitch Wednesday and Talbot Thursday against the Twins' Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn, respectively.
This blog entry is way out of order but let's go back to tonight's matchup. Kevin Slowey (1-1, 3.48 ERA) looks to get on the right track as he figures out just what his screwy (pun intended) arm can do. Slowey did not get out of the sixth inning in his two previous starts this season, but a promisingly good Spring Training suggests that there's nowhere to go up for the Brad Radke-wannabe.
Slowey goes up against the enigmatic Justin Masterson (0-1, 2.45 ERA), who came to the Indians at the trade deadline in 2009 as part of a package from the Red Sox for Victor Martinez. Masterson has had early season success like Huff and Talbot, but has one very large weakness: Lefties. While right-handed batters post a .200 BA against Masterson, lefties hit .299 with an .857 OPS. Predictably that amounted to mountains of success for the Twins when they faced him last year.
The Twins have won their first four series this year, and I should think that five straight is pretty likely considering the pitching matchups and the vulnerability of the Indians' lineup outside of Shin-Soo Choo.
Thanks for reading!
Picture credit:
Friday, April 16, 2010
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