Saturday, July 10, 2010

Freefalling



After Detroit left Minnesota last week, the Twins were clinging onto a 1.5 game lead in the AL Central, having gutted out a series victory over the Motor City Kitties. They were second - SECOND - in the AL in ERA and, largely thanks to Jim Thome's dingers, were hitting the ball soundly.

And now look where we are. Third place entering today's blockbuster Blackburn/Bonderman matchup. Three games behind Detroit. Six losses in eight games.

Little has changed on the hitting side of things. Yeah, the primary suspect is the starting pitching which turned sour nearly overnight. Since July dawned, Twins pitchers have a 5.66 ERA...that's a jump up from a 4.22 ERA in June. One other interesting statistic is that pitchers are letting over twice as many inherited runners score. So far (yes, small sample size applies) 32% of inherited runners have scored, compared to 14% in June. Actually, it's nearly 1 per game.

The lineup, while hitting consistently (sort of), has questions. Justin Morneau has been out since Wednesday with concussion-like symptoms, putting in flux a lineup that could have finally gone back to normal. Michael Cuddyer is at first and Nick Punto is at third for the second game of the three-game series with Detroit.

A few solutions for this mess are pretty easy. Ron Gardenhire has clearly lost all confidence in reliever Ron Mahay, however deservingly. Mahay is 0-1 with a 3.96 ERA in just 25 innings of work (28 appearances). Mahay has been used mostly as a mop-up guy, but now Gardy is even hesitant to use him there. It appears that Mahay's days are numbered. A few rumblings (aka tweets) suggest that a move may be made soon. My guess would be that Mahay gets designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for either Kyle Waldrop or Anthony Slama, both relievers for AAA Rochester that are having solid years. Waldrop is buzzoo.ing right along with a 1.11 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, while Slama has been a solid closer with a very impressive 1.28 ERA and a 0.932 WHIP (only 4 H per 9 innings).

My overwhelming hunch is that the Twins will also make a trade for a pitcher. Nick Blackburn is beyond struggling right now and a move to the bullpen appears imminent (or at least, it should be). His 6.00 6.16 ERA through two 6.21 through three innings Saturday has put the Twins behind nearly every time he toes the rubber. Reliever Brian Duensing has avoided a sophomore slump and is more than ready to start; his performance down the stretch was a huge part of the Twins' 2009 run.

Roy Oswalt comes to mind, but there are probably others (Ben Sheets, Dan Haren) to note too. But right now the Twins aren't really linked to any of the three. That's a speculation for another day.

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